Can the SADC Summit salvage Mozambique’s reputation?

- The fact that Zimbabwe itself faces internal electoral crises should be an indicator that we should not expect much from the summit

By Stélvio Martins and Rence Martine

Maputo (MOZTIMES) - MOZAMBIQUE has been sunk in chaos following the preliminary results from the 9 October general elections which granted victory to the ruling FRELIMO party and its presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo.

The results were contested by the fugitive opposition candidate, Venâncio Mondlane.

Following the ongoing chaos, with dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries in the clashes between the police and demonstrators, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has called for an extraordinary summit to address the deepening post-election crisis in Mozambique.

Academics and political analysts have expressed mixed views regarding the ongoing chaos and the planned SADC extraordinary meeting with some saying the meeting could help calm the situation down, while others see it as almost worthless.

The extraordinary summit is scheduled to take place from 16-20 November in the Zimbabwean capital of Harare

The political turmoil began after an independent candidate supported by the PODEMOS party, Venâncio Mondlane, rejected the preliminary results of the general elections, published on 24 October by the National Elections Commission (CNE), but yet to be approved by the Constitutional Council (CC).

The SADC observation mission led by former Zanzibar President, Amani Abeid Karume accepted the results. More critical observers, including the main local observation teams and the European Union observation mission, found the elections flawed.

Mondlane claimed to have evidence of election fraud. His lawyer Elvino Dias and PODEMOS election agent Paulo Guambe were brutally murdered as Mondlane was organizing documents in order to challenge the results.

In response, Mondlane called for protests, which have now been taking place for nearly two weeks, leading to violent clashes between police and protestors. The chaos has led to the torching of several FRELIMO party offices and the destruction of public and private property.

In an interview, Dr. Paul Loisulie, a political analyst and lecturer at the University of Dodoma in Tanzania pointed out that SADC bears a crucial responsibility to address the crisis in Mozambique as an active member state.

“Mozambique’s peace is not optional but essential,” he said

He added: “The instability affects not just the people of Mozambique, but also neighboring countries and the broader region”.

Dr. Loisulie believes the crisis could be resolved by bringing FRELIMO and the opposition to the negotiating table. “The two sides need to talk, and SADC must facilitate those talks. This would be the simplest and most effective way to resolve the problem,” he noted.

Dr. Joseph Chakupewa, a political analyst at the University of Dar es Salaam, agreed, suggesting that under pressure from neighboring nations and other SADC members, FRELIMO may be compelled to open dialogue with the opposition.

“The country belongs to its people, not to a single party or a few individuals,” Chakupewa said. “When things go awry, it’s vital to prioritize the nation’s interests, not political or personal gains.”

He added: “I believe the SADC extraordinary summit will take these concerns into account and make a strong decision to bring an end to the chaos.”

SADC in the Equation

An expert at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Piers Pigou did not express much optimism about the SADC meeting, due to the organization’s internal policies, which are unlikely to bring the two actors to the negotiating table.

This point of view is shared, by Mozambican Political Analyst Hélio Maúre who said, “I don’t have many hopes in relation to the SADC meeting, when it comes to Mozambique’s political situation. SADC is a ‘club of friends’, it’s a diplomatic arrangement that was created between friends and aims to satisfy their mutual interests”.

“The fact that Zimbabwe itself faces internal electoral crises should be an indication that we should not expect much from the meeting” Maúre added.

Pigou said: “SADC processes generally do not allow the presentation of alternative narratives unless member states provide this opportunity, which seems highly unlikely under the current circumstances.”

According to Pigou, there are established positions within the organization, and the meeting will likely serve to show support for FRELIMO and the current government.

“The FRELIMO political committee argues that the opposition is confrontational and is linked to a broader regime change agenda. This narrative will likely find support among some SADC members.”

He said the regional body will lean on its interim election observer mission report, which in many respects gave the electoral process a green light. SADC reports on elections in its members states are usually uncritical.

The Mozambican government and senior FRELIMO members have raised their concerns about the way in which Venâncio Mondlane has proceeded, claiming he is disrespecting institutional processes and inciting the general populace against the state.

“In effect they have criminalized his response, but one could argue his utterances have given them a stick with which to beat him,” stressed Pigou.

He believes that the Zimbabwean President, Emmerson Mnangagwa, who currently heads SADC is not a neutral actor given his responses to the contexts of Mozambique, Botswana and Zambia.

“This is yet another reason to have little confidence that SADC will seek an outcome that addresses the main democratic deficits at play in Mozambique,” he said.

Commenting on what could have been done to avoid the situation the country is facing, Mr. Pigou said long term observer missions and transparency around the registration, voting and tabulation processes would have helped to contain the situation.

He added that the electoral management bodies must be depoliticized. Currently both the CNE and the Constitutional Council are formed on a political party basis, and Frelimo has an effective majority on both bodies.

On the possible outcome of the current situation in Mozambique, Pigou said the violence and protests will be contained, at least for the moment.

He said: “The government needs to change tack, but whether it can or will remains to be seen. A positive, constructive and inclusive approach from Frelimo’s presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, will be essential”.

Pigou believes that the former liberation movements still have a central role to play in political developments moving forward. “It is their decision whether this role is constructive, inclusive and developmental or exclusive, partisan and corrupt,” he noted.

For his part, a Dar es Salaam International Relations expert, Adonis Byemelwa said the SADC emergency meeting on the Mozambique crisis is likely to focus on de-escalating tensions and facilitating dialogue between the government and opposition to prevent further violence.

Given the region's historical context of conflict resolution, SADC will likely prioritize maintaining peace and stability while avoiding direct intervention.

Expect discussions to revolve around calls for an independent investigation into the electoral process, humanitarian support for the victims of the crackdown, and efforts to restore confidence in Mozambique’s democratic institutions, Byemelwa said.

SADC could also offer mediation services to bridge the gap between the government and opposition parties, ensuring a peaceful path forward without undermining the sovereignty of Mozambique.

Byemelwa said the international community, particularly organizations like SADC, could have played a more proactive role in pressing for electoral reforms ahead of the vote, ensuring that the process was seen as credible and inclusive from the outset. (SM/RM)

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