Increased Use of Explosives Could Change the Course of Conflict in Cabo Delgado

- A civilian passenger transport vehicle was attacked by explosives in Mbau, in Mocímboa da Praia district, signalling an increase in the use of explosives against civilian targets

- Experts warn that government forces might be involuntarily supplying explosives to the insurgents

By Stélvio Martins and Macário Severiano

Maputo (MOZ TIMES) - On Tuesday (29 October), a Toyota Land Cruiser carrying passengers and cargo set off an explosive device at the Mbau administrative post in Mocímboa da Praia, killing at least one person and injuring several others.

The attack took place at around 10.00, in an area covered by dense forest. As the vehicle detonated the explosive, the insurgents, who were hiding nearby, started shooting at the survivors.

Some managed to flee the scene and others are missing. It is suspected that they were kidnapped. The driver of the car died at the scene, a local resident said.

Later on Tuesday, people found the car immobilised and the driver's body still inside, with signs of burns. All the goods had been looted.

The administrative post of Mbau, in the south of Mocímboa da Praia, is inhabited mainly by people from the dominant Maconde ethnic group and has been the target of several attacks by insurgents. The Rwandan forces deployed in Cabo Delgado have a permanent position in Mbau, but Tuesday's attack took place a little way from the administrative post headquarters, where the Rwandan forces are stationed.

Increasing use of IEDs against civilians

The Tuesday incident is the third car attack using explosives in a period of two months on roads in the districts of Mocímboa da Praia and Muidumbe. One of the most recent cases took place in the area of Xitaxi, in Muidumbe district, and another on the same stretch of national road number 380, between the villages of Chinda and Mbau.

The Mbau attack has not yet been claimed by the Islamic State. However, this year alone, the IS official propaganda channel, the Amaq Agency, reported several IED attacks, with some incidents occurring in Muidumbe (three attacks), Mocímboa da Praia (two attacks), and Macomia (one attack). These incidents reflect the growing sophistication and operational reach of the insurgents.

Security experts warn that the increased use of IEDs could increase the insurgents 'lethal power and make the conflict more complex. Willem Els of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), and a retired member of the South African Police Service bomb squad, explained that the use of IEDs by insurgent groups is a traditional tactic to obstruct the operations of government military forces. He refers to other conflict zones, such as Iraq and Syria, where IEDs have caused significant casualties.

Els, warns that while current IEDs in Cabo Delgado are relatively rudimentary, the possibility of more advanced devices poses a serious risk to regional stability. He notes that insurgents are shifting from targeting military convoys to attacking civilian and commercial vehicles, potentially leading to food shortages and restricted movement.

“The use of IEDs brings a new dimension to the fight,”, said Els, adding that “the moment explosives are also involved, it creates a new level of threat”.

“They've been using IEDs for quite some time. They've been using them to protect the roads, especially the main route from Mocímboa da Praia and from Macomia. They would then have an advance warning when the Rwandans come from Mocímboa da Praia, but also when the SAMIM forces would approach them from Macomia”, Els said.

“Some IEDs were placed on the road, and the terrorists would wait for the vehicle to approach. Then typically when the vehicle is right next to or over the IED, they would ignite it by electronic means”, he added.

What has changed is that the insurgents are now deliberately targeting civilians with IEDs. Els says that, in the short term, the threat could prevail given the inability of the government's security forces to stop it.

“It is actually a new dimension when they are looking at using explosives or IEDs against civilians as well. So, that proves to be a game-changer” Els said. “On the capacity of the Mozambican forces, it's fairly limited, if any. So, they will mostly rely on the Rwandan forces to assist them”, he added. Els suggested that the Government needs to “curb the smuggling of explosives to prevent the insurgents from obtaining explosives”.

Els also argues that the Mozambican Army is the major source of explosives for the insurgents.

“We see that whenever there's an attack on them, they just drop their weapons, and then they run and try to escape, leaving behind mortar bombs and RPG-7 rocket-propelled grenades and so on. So they are the main suppliers of the explosives that are being used against them”, he said.

Els recommends that the Mozambican forces should not carry explosives or explosive ordnance with them, if they don't need to use them. “Why would you carry an RPG-7 rocket-propelled grenade, for instance, if your enemy does not have armoured vehicles?”, he questioned.

“So, if you don't have that threat, it's better not to take these explosive devices with you, especially with the track record of the Mozambican forces, who just drop their weapons and everything and run away whenever there's a contact”, Els recommended.

Emilia Columbo, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) underscores that the increased use of IEDs represents a significant evolution in insurgent capabilities. “This tactic allows insurgents to avoid direct confrontations with security forces while asserting control over key roads and undermining state authority”, she said in an interview.

As the Mozambican military faces challenges in countering IEDs, Columbo says, “Immediate responses include enhancing intelligence, preventing the smuggling of explosives, and using armoured vehicles to protect against IED attacks” (SM/MS)

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