- The main leader of the opposition will not be at the dialogue for fear of being detained
- Political analyst says that the dialogue initiative is a manoeuvre to gain time until the proclamation of the election results by the Constitutional Council
By Ricardo Dias
Maputo (MOZTIMES) – The dialogue initiative of President Filipe Nyusi, which seeks to solve the post-election conflict in Mozambique, seems doomed to failure. The main leader of the opposition, Venâncio Mondlane, has made demands that will be difficult to satisfy before the dialogue on Tuesday, including the guarantee that, if he returns to Maputo, he will not be detained.
So far, Ossufo Momade, leader of Renamo – who is a partner of Presidente Filipe Nyusi, and who had the worst result in the history of his party (5%) and the Frelimo candidate, Daniel Chapo, have confirmed their participation. The fourth presidential candidate, Lutero Simango, has said he will not take part in the dialogue, “if there is not a serious agenda”.
Venâncio Mondlane agreed to participate but only if pre-conditions are met. He submitted 20 points including the inclusion of more Mozambican personalities in the debate, the approval of terms of reference on the topics to be debated, and an end to the lawsuits against him.
Domingos do Rosário, a lecturer in Political Science at Maputo’s Eduardo Mondlane University, doubts the seriousness of the President’s dialogue initiative. He thinks that in calling the presidential candidates for a dialogue, Nyusi may be trying to gain time until the Constitutional Council validates and proclaims the results of the general elections.
“This meeting is another manoeuvre, it’s a way of gaining time until the election results are proclaimed”, said do Rosário. “There were never any conditions for dialogue, because the State has frozen Mondlane’s accounts, and arrest warrants have been issued against him”.
In 2014, in an electoral context like this one, the police arrested António Muchanga, at the time a deputy in the Assembly of the Republic, a member of the Council of State and the spokesperson for the late President of Renamo, Afonso Dhlakama. Muchanga was detained as he was leaving a meeting of the Council of State in the Presidential offices, accused of the same crimes that weigh today against Mondlane, that he is a threat to state security.
Do Rosário believes that Mondlane could pass through the same situation as Muchanga. “The behaviour of the State, from then until now, has not changed. Only the people have changed”, he said.
“I never believed this would be a genuine meeting intended to solve the problem (…) since in the worst part of the crisis, the Head of State made the most pejorative statements, showing contempt for the candidates and the demonstrators", said do Rosário.
He added that “the guardians of Frelimo, such as Joaquim Chissano and Graça Machel, were unable to strike a neutral and conciliatory pose at this moment”.
Do Rosario argues that, to emerge from this post-election crisis, a more inclusive dialogue is needed, involving “all the living forces of society”.
Mondlane has already submitted a list of personalities whom he believes should be involved in the dialogue. Do Rosário says the list should expanded, particularly to include more young people, who are the main base of support for the leader of the opposition.
Do Rosário believes that the post-election crisis will lead the country to a crossroads. “Either we will be a relentless dictatorship, or we will be a new State”, he said.
Possible arrest of Mondlane may lead to instability
As for a possible detention of Mondlane, if he returns to Maputo for the dialogue, lawyer Sandra Clifton, says he would be a political prisoner, and that political arrests “are seen as a form of dictatorship”.
“Arresting someone arbitrarily, just because he has annoyed the regime, has an international impact, and damages stability”, the lawyer said in an interview. “A possible arrest of Venâncio Mondlane, a figure who is better known than the President of the Republic, would run a great risk of sparking off a popular revolt".
Another lawyer, Ivan Maússe, believes that the lawsuits against Venâncio Mondlane “are without merit”. He regards them as “precipitate” and no more than a political expedient.
Mausse doubted that the Attorney-General’s Office had received expert advice about the damage that Mondlane has supposedly caused.
At stake is the civil suit against Mondlane, and the PODEMOS party, demanding compensation equivalent to 505 million US dollars to repair the damage caused by the demonstrations protesting against the election results.
For Maússe, it is difficult to link Venâncio Mondlane directly to vandalism. In his public statements, he always spoke of “peaceful demonstrations”, and against violence.
Mondlane has called protests, using live broadcasts on his Facebook page, causing strikes, because he does not recognise the preliminary results announced by the National Elections Commission (CNE) which gave victory to the ruling Frelimo Party and its presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo.
The Public Prosecutor’s Office has begun 208 criminal proceedings against those regarded as the “moral and material authors” of violence in the post-election demonstrations. (RD)
