By João Feijó
Maputo (MOZTIMES) - Since the 9 October elections, Mozambique has seen a radicalization of discourse and a spiral of violence. A large demonstration on the streets of Maputo is scheduled for next Thursday, November 7, and the defense and security forces are expected to respond aggressively. There is fear of a bloodbath in the streets of the capital and a spectre of destruction as a result of the public´s anger.
The great catharsis: the realization of a popular uprising
Over the last few weeks there has been a great deal of mass unrest, which has highlighted Venâncio Mondlane's social support base. On the one hand, there are young people from the suburban and peri-urban areas of the big cities, especially Maputo and Matola, but also Tete, Chimoio, Nampula or Nacala-Porto, as well as Beira and Quelimane. The urban lumpen (destitute young people acting as makeshift heroes “napharamas” and living off the dole) are joined by idle students (against a backdrop of classes being interrupted), who turn the protest into either a catharsis or a festive celebration. In other videos, adult women join in en masse. More recently, the middle classes in the central districts (small and medium-sized traders from the formal sector, self-employed workers and specialists) have organized their marches on the main arteries of the cities. In the early evening, hundreds of residents in the urban district of Kamfumo started a potlatch on their balconies, making a lot of noise with pots and vuvuzelas. The protests have spread to rural districts from the north to the south of the country, with reports of violent incidents in Ressano Garcia, Mecanhelas, Gondola, Chalaua and Namialo, affecting the main transport corridors and the economies of the hinterland countries.
The images show that attempts to carry out demonstrations were generally repressed by the police, including when they involved the cities' middle classes. Videos circulated on social media of tear gas being thrown at journalists and homes, but also police officers of the Republic of Mozambique being hit by members of the Rapid Intervention Unit, in disproportionate and disorganized acts. Young people have been hit by real bullets, fired in a reckless manner by police officers, with no subsequent assistance to the victims. The police violence was followed by vandalism by the population, including roadblocks, burning tires and destruction of infrastructure. In some cases, there has been looting. The main targets have been the headquarters of the Frelimo party, the homes of police officers and the premises of telecommunications companies.
The videos shared on social media show that, in municipalities governed by opposition parties (such as Beira and Quelimane), the marches were more orderly. Significant numbers of people were accompanied by police officers, in a peaceful coexistence.
The violent police response catalyzed the popular uprising, generating a growing anti-Frelimo sentiment. Police officers were lynched or insulted by the population, accused of being criminals, lawbreakers and violators of people's rights.
The week-long protest has increased popular support and expectations of political change. From abroad, the opposition leader organizes daily lives, with long speeches, sometimes demagogic, denouncing politics and spreading rumors. Like Frelimo, Mondlane's movement doesn't have a mature political ideology, but is based on exploiting a common sentiment and objective: to overthrow the Frelimo government, which is seen as the scapegoat for decades of social exclusion. Surfing on a wave of popular discontent, Mondlane is catching a ride on this social tsunami, formed over decades of exclusion and which has no chance of being reversed. With a religiously inspired speech, Venâncio presents himself as a messiah, capable of restoring hope and galvanizing his followers.
The lethargy of the Frelimo party
The enthusiasm and capacity to mobilize opposition members contrasts with the passivity of Frelimo supporters. Capable of gathering large numbers of people during the electoral period, the ruling party is now struggling to mobilize its supporters, even in the places where it won significant victories. On social media, Daniel Chapo's popularity is unmatched by that of Venâncio Mondlane. Any post by Filipe Nyusi on his Facebook page generates thousands of critical comments from internet users, often insulting. Actions to vandalize the statue of the President of the Republic at a secondary school in Boane provoke a great deal of collective support. In reaction, commentators sympathetic to the Frelimo party toughen up their speeches, often in a provocative manner.
Rifle count/Counting of Rifles
As the big demonstration in Maputo approaches, Mozambican society is becoming increasingly polarized. Faced with constant attempts to prevent any form of demonstration, Venâncio Mondlane has decentralized the political struggle, giving the initiative for the protest to his supporters in the respective neighborhoods. Through social media, he called for demonstrations to intensify on November 5 and 6 and called for a mega rally in Maputo city center on November 7. In the message, he urges the population to “exercise their right to self-defense with all available means”. The event is galvanizing a large part of the capital's youth, who will be coming to the city in an unorganized movement. In an atmosphere of tension, young people devoid of hope are demonstrating their willingness to die for their freedom.
This atmosphere of extreme popular unrest contrasts with the passivity of the President of the Republic, who reduced his communication to the nation to a Facebook post. The Minister of Defense was given the responsibility of explaining, in an intimidating and threatening tone, that the military will be prepared to maintain order on November 7.
To an intense problem of political and economic nature, which deserved a sensitive and forceful intervention by the head of state, the government responds in a secure way: cutting off the internet, supervising the entry into the city and putting the troops on the street. The Minister of Defense has produced a set of carefully selected videos to propagate the narrative of the leader of the opposition as an instigator of violence, ignoring the excesses perpetuated by the Defense and Security Forces, Generators of great popular revolt against the Government. The Minister highlighted the high morale of the Mozambican military, contradicted by the statements of disgruntled soldiers in videos circulating on social networks, in which they express support for the popular uprising. Behind all the muscles, the system is based on a house of cards. However, the existence of many former combatants with military training and possibly weapons holders in their homes makes any confrontation unpredictable.
A bloody Thursday?
Most Mozambicans have had direct or indirect experience of a 16-year civil war and are particularly apprehensive about the growing radicalization of speeches, without no political solution visible on the horizon. The country faces the immediate challenge of avoiding a tragedy in the upcoming November 7 demonstrations. The concentration of hundreds of thousands of young people in the streets of Maputo, without a timetable, a meeting point, a defined route and a destination, will run the risk of becoming a social chaos, especially if the overzealousness of the defense and security forces is repeated. In order to avoid a bloody Thursday, it is in the interest of the Mozambican government to approach the event's organizers, with the aim of agreeing on a route and ensuring security conditions, as has happened in municipalities such as Beira or Quelimane. The disorganization of an event of this magnitude will compromise the security of thousands of Mozambicans, whom the Government of Mozambique and the opposition leader claim to represent. The occurrence of a tragedy will cause wounds in the social fabric, constituting an enormous obstacle to national unity, regardless of who comes to govern. (JF)
