By Paul Fauvet
Maputo, 30 Oct (MOZTIMES) - Mozambique's fugitive opposition leader, Venâncio Mondlane, has promised a week of strikes and demonstrations, and even a march on Maputo explicitly intended to overthrow the government.
This is "stage three" of the opposition protests, largely against election fraud. Phase one was what Mondlane called "a national general strike" on 21 October. Phase two was two days of demonstration last Thursday and Friday, which often degenerated into clashes between the police and demonstrators.
On Tuesday night, speaking on a live Facebook feed from an undisclosed location somewhere outside the country, Mondlane laid out his plans for stage three. "We shall begin a new cycle", he said.
He called for a shutdown of economic activities across the country starting on Thursday, 31 October. In addition, demonstrations will be held outside the offices of the district elections commissions, and local offices of the ruling Frelimo Party. All of this is supposed to happen simultaneously.
But the most ambitious part of Mondlane's plans is a march on Maputo, starting on 31 October, and culminating in the complete occupation of the city on 7 November.
"We shall occupy the entire city of Maputo. We shall have four million Mozambicans. We shall all march on Maputo. There will be no armoured cars and tear gas to stop the people", he declared.
At this point a few awkward facts and figures might be useful. Where does Mondlane expect to find four million people? According to the projections from the 2017 population census, there are now 735,000 people aged 18 and above living in Maputo city. The adjacent city of Matola would provide another million people.
What about the other two million? Will they be among those marching on the city from other provinces?
Such a march is logistically challenging. The distances are huge – 2,336 kilometres separate the northern city of Lichinga from Maputo, while the distance from Pemba, capital of Cabo Delgado province, to Maputo, as the crow flies is 1,666 kilometres. Quelimane to Maputo is a distance of 1,565 kilometres, and the road from Beira to Maputo is 1,213 kilometres.
These are not distances that can be walked in seven days! Presumably Mondlane expects the marchers to walk – he certainly did not mention arranging a fleet of buses.
The marchers will also need to eat and drink. Mondlane's solution to this problem was to ask friendly business people to provide food. But businesses disapprove of Mondlane's strikes and demonstration. The body that claims to speak for Mozambican business, the CTA (Confederation of Business Associations) has publicly condemned the demonstrations and urged workers not to join strikes. So few businesses will be willing to provide free food for the marchers.
And where does Mondlane expect his supporters to sleep when they reach Maputo? On the streets? He did not say.
But he was confident that occupying the streets of Maputo "will dictate the end of the regime that has humiliated, murdered, trampled upon and stolen from the Mozambican people".
He recalled that, in its days as a national liberation movement, Frelimo took ten years (1964-1974) to defeat the Portuguese colonial regime. But Mondlane expects to overthrow the current government in just a week.
"Frelimo is massacring the people", he claimed. "We have to consent to sacrifices. This time, the struggle is not just of one party but of all Mozambicans".
Over the past fortnight, the police have shown brutal willingness to attack unarmed demonstrators with tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. Why should a showdown between the police and the "march on Maputo" be any different?
Nonetheless, Mondlane was optimistic that this time the defence and security forces would not turn their guns against protestors. He also believed that the rank-and-file of Frelimo will desert their leadership and join the marchers – although to date there is no sign of any mass defections from Frelimo.
Mondlane promises to remain in contact with his supporters through his live Facebook broadcasts. Returning to Mozambique would be risky since the police have announced that they are opening criminal proceedings against him. (PF)
