– International observers say that the voting was peaceful, but they witnessed ballot box stuffing, and exaggeration of the number of voters registered
– Venâncio Mondlane, the main candidate of the opposition, declared that he had won the presidential elections, and says that young people will not tolerate another fraud
By Noémia Mendes and Aurélio Muianga
Maputo (MOZTIMES) – With the official results from the district count of the elections held on 9 October now available, the candidate of the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO), Daniel Chapo, is the virtual winner of the presidential election, and the FRELIMO Party should win the parliamentary and provincial elections in all ten provinces. The final result of the national count should be published by 24 October.
The victory of FRELIMO and its presidential candidate was expected in a context of great manipulation of the elections and of an uneven political playing field in favour of FRELIMO. In this election, the main opponent of FRELIMO, Venâncio Mondlane, and the main national and international election observation missions again denounced serious irregularities and election fraud, including ballot box stuffing, and inflation of the number of registered voters, which benefitted the ruling party.
The results announced by the district elections commissions show that the FRELIMO presidential candidate Daniel Chapo will ensure victory in the first round, with over 60% of the votes. FRELIMO will win the parliamentary elections, thus extending its rule, which has lasted since the independence of the country in 1975, to more than 50 years. The remaining doubt is whether FRELIMO will achieve a majority of over two thirds in parliament, which it achieved in the last general elections in 2019.
The victory of FRELIMO and its presidential candidate should guarantee the continuity of public policies favourable to international investment, particularly in the mining of natural resources such as natural gas in Cabo Delgado, graphite, heavy mineral sands, and rubies.
However, domestically there is a great weariness with the governance of FRELIMO marked by scandals of corruption such as the hidden debts, the deterioration in the quality of public services such as education, health, and public security, which led many voters, particularly young people and the urban population, to support the main opposition candidate, Venâncio Mondlane.
Rise of a new opposition leader
The great surprise of this election is Venâncio Mondlane, who was running for the first time in the presidential elections. Preliminary data indicate that Mondlane could come second, relegating the candidate of the historic opposition, the Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO) to third place. It will be the first time this has happened since the introduction of multi-party elections in Mozambique, in 1994.
Mondlane was a prominent Renamo parliamentary deputy, but he resigned from the party after he was prevented from running as its presidential candidate. He launched an independent bid for the presidency, and seems to have carried the opposition voters with him.
The official results show that Mondlane came second in almost all districts, while the Renamo candidate, Ossufo Momade, follows in third place. In last place is the candidate of the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), Lutero Simango.
The position of second most voted presidential candidate confers automatically a status of member of the Council of State, a body that advises the President of the Republic on matters of great national interest. However, the opposition candidate could refuse to join the Council of State, as was the case with the late leader of RENAMO, Afonso Dhlakama.
PODEMOS, a small party set up by FRELIMO dissidents about a decade ago, declared its support for Venâncio Mondlane on the eve of the elections and is obtaining surprising results which could make it the second most voted party, giving it the prestigious status of leader of the parliamentary opposition. But this position will be seriously contested by RENAMO, which has more votes than its presidential candidate.
The party which leads the parliamentary opposition has the right to form a parliamentary group. Based on proportional representation in parliament, the parties with parliamentary seats appoint members to important state bodies, such the National Elections Commission (CNE), the Council of State, and the Constitutional Council. This latter body operates as a Constitutional Court and as a Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Its judges declare whether laws are unconstitutional, and validate election results, among other essential functions.
Election fraud and the threat of youth revolt
A day after the vote, Venâncio Mondlane declared he had won in a live broadcast transmitted by his Facebook account. He said he was setting up a commission for the peaceful transfer of power, and that his government will include members of FRELIMO.
At a press conference two days after the elections, Dinis Tivane, technical director of the parallel count team set up by Venâncio Mondlane, declared that his candidate had won the elections in 8 of the 11 provinces. He accepted that Mondlane had lost in the northern province of Niassa, and in Gaza and Inhambane, in the south. But these claims are not in accordance with the official results.
Mondlane has promised a “popular revolt”, if his victory is stolen, “The future of this country does not depend on me, it depends on the country’s young people”, he said, citing Jonas Savimbi, the historic opposition of the Angolan opposition party, UNITA. “I believe in the strength and courage of young people who will not allow fraud”, Mondlane added.
Last year, Mondlane ran for mayor of Maputo, in the municipal elections, and lost to the FRELIMO candidate, but the parallel vote count by independent voter observation organisations showed that Mondlane won the election with over 55% of the votes. Mondlane promoted peaceful marches for more than 45 days claiming victory, and only stopped when the official results were proclaimed by the Constitutional Council.
Lorena Mazive, a specialist in election matters in the Sala da Paz, a Mozambican organisation that has been observing elections in Mozambique since 2004, believes that, by announcing his own victory, Mondlane is trying to put pressure on public opinion to repudiate fraud. “There was fraud in these elections, but the central question is evidence. Without evidence (of fraud) any claim loses its force”, said Mazive in an interview.
Mazive believes that marches could take place, as happened last year, but that they will mostly be peaceful. “Mondlane’s marches last year were peaceful, and there was only violence when the police tried to stop them”, said Mazive. “I don’t think it will be different this year”.
The CNE spokesperson, Paulo Cuinica, downplayed Mondlane’s claim of victory, stating “it is the task of the election management bodies to declare the winner of elections, and anyone who doesn’t agree can appeal to the courts”.
Although the election campaign and the voting were mostly peaceful, the main domestic and international election observation groups mentioned cases of fraud witnessed during the voting and the count.
The European Union Election Observation Mission (MOE EU) observed the count in 74 polling stations and assessed the process as bad in 24 stations and very bad in four, according to Laura Ballarín, the head of the MOE EU in the Mission’s preliminary declaration, given last Friday. “Cases of ballot box stuffing were detected in Zambézia, Maputo, Nampula, Tete, Gaza and Sofala”, Laura Ballarín said, in answer to questions from journalists.
In its preliminary statement, the international observation mission from the International Republican Institute (IRI) said it had noted incidents of critical violations throughout the country. “In provinces such as Maputo, Niassa, Inhambane and Zambézia, political party monitors and citizen observers were prevented from entering the polling stations. This happened although the observers had the necessary credentials. This caused interruptions in the observation efforts”.
Organisations of local observers such as the Sala da Paz and Mais Integridade report serious cases of electoral fraud. In its report on the count, Sala da Paz said “most of the polling stations had finished their count, but strangely they did not post the editais (results sheets)”.
The results of the national count from the elections of 9 October should be published up to 15 days after the close of polls. Complaints to the election management bodies will follow and appeals to the district courts, which should be decided before the results of the national count are released. (NM,AM e BN).
