– There are areas in Cabo Delgado province under the control or influence of insurgents, making it impossible to hold elections there
By Stélvio Martins
Maputo (MOZ TIMES) – About 17 million people are registered to vote in the presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections scheduled to be held in Mozambique on Wednesday, 9 October. This is an increase of more than three million voters when compared with the last general elections, held in 2019.
Specialists warn that the terrorist violence in the northern province of Cabo Delgado which has displaced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, plus generalised distrust of the electoral system, may hinder the holding of free elections.
Four candidates are running in the presidential elections. Daniel Chapo of the ruling party, the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO), is regarded as the favourite and will benefit greatly from a political playing field that is steeply tilted in favour of FRELIMO. The three opposition candidates, Ossufo Momade, of the Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO), Lutero Simango, of the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) and the independent, Venâncio Mondlane, could compete among themselves for the position of the runner-up, which would confer the status of leader of the opposition, including a seat on the Council of State, a body that advises the President.
Terrorist Threat in Cabo Delgado
The Mozambican election is taking place in a context of terrorist attacks in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, where more than 1.4 million citizens have been registered to vote. The attacks, which have lasted for seven years, have caused about 6,000 deaths, and more than a million people have been internally displaced.
The Government guarantees that security conditions are in place for voting in Cabo Delgado. About 5,000 soldiers and police officers from Rwanda are stationed in various districts fighting the insurgency. The Rwandan forces should also work to guarantee security during the elections.
However, terrorist attacks are continuing, and now with the increasing use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which causes uncertainties about the security of the elections. The coastal areas of Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia and Quissanga districts will find it difficult to meet the security conditions needed to hold the voting.
Emilia Columbo, a senior associate of the Africa Programme of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) of the United States of America, says that rather than the Government giving security guarantees, the question is how safe people really feel, even when the Government says that it is safe to go to the polls.
“With the recent insurgent activity and the low level of trust in the security forces of the State, I imagine that the voters might not feel safe in travelling to the polling stations”, said Emília Columbo in an interview.
“This lack of trust in the security forces, and the fear of attacks create a barrier to democratic participation”, she added.
Willem Els, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa), says it will not be possible to cover voters living in areas under the influence of the insurgents, and so one can take it for granted that some of the residents of Cabo Delgado will not vote. “There are places in the province that are under the control or influence of the insurgents, rather than of the government forces”, he said.
All the presidential candidates included in their election campaign speeches the need to solve the conflict in Cabo Delgado, but for Emília Columbo, “the capacity of the new president (elected in these elections) to change course, may be difficult, given the complexity of the situation.”
Election fraud is certain, but how will young people react?
In addition to the security issue, distrust towards the electoral system is another serious risk which can compromise the elections in Mozambique. The accusations of fraud committed by the election management bodies to favour the ruling party marked the municipal elections in 2023 and this could be repeated in this year’s elections.
Joseph Hanlon, a social scientist who has specialised in Mozambican elections, says “it is certain that Frelimo will steal the elections in October. The question is whether there will be a response from the donors, from young people, or in Cabo Delgado”.
“There are 900,000 ghost voters, people registered, but who do not exist, who will vote for Frelimo, guaranteeing the presidency for Chapo. The fraud will reduce the number of parliamentary seats held by the opposition”, said Hanlon in a seminar organised by ISS Africa in late August to analyse the elections in Mozambique. “The major question is knowing how the donors will react. The donors could say loudly that these elections are an opportunity to allow young people to speak. But will they be brave enough?”, asked Hanlon.
In an interview with THE MOZAMBIQUE TIMES, Hanlon explained that elections in Mozambique don’t count. “The idea in many autocratic regimes is to deceive people into thinking that the ballot box can bring about change. But the truth is the exact opposite, it shows them that it can’t”.
The results of Mozambican elections should be known three days after the voting – but up to two weeks are needed for them to be approved by the National Elections Commission (CNE) and up to 45 days for the results to be proclaimed by the Constitutional Council (SM/BN).
