By Hilário Chacate, Lecturer in International Relations
Maputo (MOZTIMES) - The battle of the titans vying for electoral power in the general and provincial elections of October 9 in Mozambique continues to be one of the topics that is fueling debate and interest, both nationally and internationally. Other than being the most closely monitored elections of all time, since the country embraced universal suffrage in 1994, they are also considered to be the most contested in the entire history of Mozambican elections.
Despite the different backgrounds and interests behind the thousands of national and foreign observers and journalists who closely oversaw this process, there is a consensus among them that the electoral process was deeply tainted by illicit acts and electoral irregularities. This framework has created a widespread perception that the results of these elections may have been highly flawed.
To make things even more tense, the presidential candidate, Venâncio Mondlane, supported by the PODEMOS party, decided to declare himself the winner a day after the voting and while the partial vote count was still taking place, with around 65% of the votes, based on the alleged results of a parallel count carried out by his party. Later, Mondlane adjusted his “victory” to 53%, this time claiming that he had counted 70% of the partial tabulation notices at the polling stations.
Although Mondlane proclaimed himself as the winner of the October 9 elections, still with a marginal percentage of votes counted and enjoying unquestionable popular legitimacy, according to the CNE’s (National Electoral Commission) calculations, the real winner of this election was Frelimo and its candidate, Daniel Chapo, with a percentage above 70%.
Following CNE's announcement, using his ability to mobilize minds and hearts through social networks and other media platforms, as well as his discursive power, Venâncio Mondlane has been convincing a significant fringe of national and international public opinion that he is the true winner of the elections held last October. In fact, it's no secret that many Mozambicans are legitimizing Mondlane as the president, giving him attributes such as: the president, supreme leader, great father, president of the people, among others.
The newspaper Canal de Moçambique wrote in one of its headlines that Venâncio Mondlane turns the country off and on whenever he wants, via his cell phone. Since October 21, Mondlane has been deciding, through his livestreams on social media, when the economy should work, when people and various means of circulation should circulate, among various other details of the country and even the region. You don't have to be a great social scientist to realize that the country, from Rovuma to Maputo and from Zumbo to the Indian Ocean, has been working to Venâncio Mondlane's liking.
Against this backdrop of demonstrations contesting the election results, Frelimo came forward through the spokesperson for its Political Commission, Alcinda Abreu, to reiterate that it is the legitimate winner of this election. Abreu made it clear that her party won resoundingly, with more than 70% of the votes, and that it will not give up its victory. Frelimo has been sticking to institutional legalism to claim its victory and appealing for calm and patience while awaiting the proclamation and validation of the election results by the Constitutional Council (CC). Paradoxically, the same Frelimo that is calling for everyone to be serene and wait for the proclamation and validation of the CC, in an ironic tone, has already celebrated its victory with the famous song sung at a critical moment by the President of its Party, Filipe Nyusi, when he sang: “Chapo is President, whether you like it or not”. In addition, some of Frelimo's loyal friends have already sent delegations to greet and congratulate Daniel Chapo on his victory. These include the Communist Party of China and Angola's MPLA, to name but a few.
One of the great dilemmas of these elections is that Frelimo and PODEMOS can say all they want, yet both have no way of proving with unquestionable evidence that they won this electoral race. It becomes even more serious because the institution that administers the electoral processes (CNE) and which announced the results accepted by some and contested by others, cannot produce the original minutes and notices that served as the basis for producing the results it announced on October 24.
Still on the subject of the results announced by the CNE, Fernando Mazanga, CNE's Vice-President, said in an interview he gave to DW that, given the way the process unfolded, he was in absolutely no position to declare who the winner of this ballot was, and no one is in a position to do so. Mazanga ended his interview by stating that the results proclaimed by the President of the CNE were false.
In the midst of this all, there is one detail that catches the eye: Venâncio Mondlane and the party that supports his candidacy, as well as various segments that support his cause, believe in electoral justice and demand a recount of the votes as the only way to restore the truth. The question that will not and should not remain silent is: which votes should be recounted? Are there any votes to be recounted in the electoral framework described above?
In accordance with law, the CNE should have stored all the ballot papers of just over 7 million voters who cast their ballots on October 9, as well as the notices and tabulation minutes at various levels, from partial (at the table) to general. To be honest, we know that there are no votes and no reliable notices and minutes to be counted.
Several election observation groups and newspaper reports have indicated that other than ballot box stuffing, several minutes and notices have gone missing, others have been signed by a single person, in addition to those that may have been falsified. Is there any chance of reconstructing the electoral truth in this whole mess? The answer is clear: there are no votes to be recounted and even fewer elements to restore electoral truth.
Faced with this situation, which calls into question the results announced by the CNE, and without any possibility of reconstructing the electoral truth through the original minutes and notices, because these do not exist in their entirety, the CC finds itself in a real conundrum or dilemma.
If the CC were to proclaim and validate the results announced by the CNE, it would be complicit with this institution, which has proved that it did not produce the results it announced on the basis of reliable and confirmable data. On the other hand, if it doesn't, it would be forced to annul the elections and have them repeated. If the latter hypothesis were confirmed - which seems unlikely to me - it would be imperative for a new CNE to be set up to organize the new elections, in order to give the process more credibility.
In addition to the CNE being completely discredited, the annulment of elections would not be financially sustainable, in a context which Mazanga, vice-president of the CNE, said that so far, the state has not been able to pay a single cent for the material used for the most recent voting process and still has an outstanding bill for the 2023 local elections.
Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be many alternatives for the CC to get out of this imbroglio, other than to resort to the same controversial and non-consensual formula applied in the 2023 municipal elections, of reducing the number of parliamentary and provincial seats allocated to the Frelimo party by the CNE and redistributing them to some opposition parties, in order to ease the tension. The question is whether this will calm the current post-election tension that has already cost dozens of lives, destroyed infrastructure, and caused irreparable economic and social damage, among other things?
In any case, whichever government emerges from these elections, be it Frelimo, PODEMOS or any other political force, it is important that it takes the initiative to talk to and negotiate with the other candidates and parties that took part in this electoral process in order to create a Government of National Unity, with guarantees of reforming the electoral institutions. This would restore the credibility of the institutions and ensure that they organize fair, free and credible elections in the near future.
It is important that there is pragmatism on Chapo´s part as well as Venâncio´s, in order to guarantee the pacification of the country and reconciliation among many Mozambicans who are hurt, distressed and even frustrated by the way this process unfolded. (HC)
